📰 Macroeconomic Research & Blog
Institutional commentary, Fed balance sheet analysis, Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT) insights, and market risk briefings.
Level does not matter
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to 5.34%, hitting a 24-year high. The market is consumed by a single question: Are we heading to 6%? Or 7%? Yet, bond experts offer an unexpected answer: the absolute level doesn't matter. What's truly terrifying is the 'speed'.
Japan's Rate Hikes and the Threat to Global Carry Trades
The global economic implications of Japan's rising 10-year government bond yields recently broke above 3% for the first time in 30 years
Fed Rate Pivot & Liquidity Outlook
Testing auto-generated slug workflow
Fed Rate Pivot & Liquidity Outlook
Testing auto-generated slug workflow
Fed Rate Pivot & Liquidity Outlook
Testing auto-generated slug workflow
Fed Rate Pivot & Liquidity Outlook
Testing auto-generated slug workflow
AI semiconductor, is it bubbled?
While research firm reports are based on detailed data and provide a logical framework for analysis, their specific predictions are often subject to revision. The current focus on a potential market peak highlights the cautious atmosphere among global institutional investors as they weigh strong current earnings against the risk of future oversupply.
Fed Rate Pivot & Liquidity Outlook
Testing auto-generated slug workflow
Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT): Hedging Tail Risk & Downside Volatility
Comparing Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) with PMPT Sortino Ratio optimization to protect capital during systemic market drawdowns.
10Y vs 2Y Yield Curve Inversion: Triggers for Defensive Risk-Off Rebalancing
Why yield curve slope dynamics remain the single most reliable macroeconomic recession indicator and how AstraFolio automates defensive asset allocation.
Fed Policy Pivot, QT Dynamics & Crypto Liquidity Transmission (2026 Macro Outlook)
An in-depth quantitative study exploring how Federal Reserve balance sheet normalization (WALCL) and M2 money supply trends impact crypto asset risk premiums.